Morning Briefing: Tuesday, Mar. 11, 2025

Tens of thousands of Ohio jobs could be at risk due to DOGE plans.

In today’s Morning Briefing, we look at what jobs in the region and across Ohio could be hit the hardest. We also look at Ohio’s plans to implement work requirements for Medicaid and how many people might lose health coverage.

If you have thoughts or feedback on this newsletter or other news tips, please let me know at Greg.Lynch@coxinc.com.

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The newsletter should take about 4 minutes, 16 seconds to read.

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Ohio has 83K federal civilian employees, many in region: DOGE job cuts could hurt

The Trump administration is trying to drastically reduce the size and payroll of the federal government, which is the nation’s single-largest employer.

• Our region: Southwest Ohio potentially could be hit hard. Labor data indicate that nearly one in four federal civilian employees in Ohio are in Montgomery, Greene and Miami counties.

• Job cuts: Federal agencies and departments in Ohio have already cut employees or positions or plan major job reductions, like the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Internal Revenue Service and the Social Security Administration.

• The numbers: About 83,500 workers in Ohio were employed by the federal government at the end of 2024, which equates to about 1.5% of the state’s nonfarm payrolls. This estimate does not include active-duty military personnel.

— About 1 in 20 workers in the Dayton region were employed by the federal government at the end of last year (5% of the total workforce), or about 20,000 civilians.

— The Dayton VA Medical Center alone has more than 2,300 full-time employees.

• What they are saying: “We’re always concerned when private companies or the public sector consider layoffs, but we believe any affected employees will be well positioned for job opportunities within the region,” said Jeff Hoagland, president and CEO of the Dayton Development Coalition. “We hope impacted individuals will continue to grow their careers in Ohio.”


Medicaid under fire: Deep cuts proposed as state waits for approval to add work requirements

While Ohio seeks to implement work requirements for the Medicaid expansion group, those members could be at risk of losing coverage as state and federal lawmakers look to Medicaid to slash spending.

• What Gov. Mike DeWine is saying: “As part of our work to empower people to reach their full potential, we have a responsibility to make sure as many Ohioans as possible are on a pathway toward financial independence.”

• Those at risk: About 61,000 Ohioans could lose their health insurance coverage in 2026 if the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) approves Ohio’s proposal for work requirements.

The other 700,000 Ohioans covered under the Medicaid expansion could lose their health insurance if expansion gets terminated altogether due to provisions in the proposed state and federal budgets.

Federal budget: The federal budget bill proposes at least $880 billion in cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. About 20 million Americans rely on the ACA, and more than 72 million people rely on Medicaid.

• The cost: In Ohio, Medicaid cost $38.9 billion in fiscal year 2024, including both state and federal funds. There are more than 3 million Ohioans receiving some type of benefit or coverage from Medicaid.

Requirements: The work requirement could also be met if the person is in school, an occupational training program or a treatment center. People who are 55 or older, as well as people with significant physical or mental health needs, would be exempt.


What to know today

• One big takeaway: A dozen people were arrested and one person is facing charges after crowds of people celebrated St. Patrick’s Day on University of Dayton’s campus Saturday afternoon and evening.

• Dayton Food & Dining: The Gem City Kitchen, now at the 6888 Kitchen Incubator inside the Dayton Arcade, is serving homestyle food like grandma used to make.

• Big move of the day: As work on the Xenia Market District continues, the city has proposed a rezoning of the property to accommodate housing for the site and expedite the process of approving the new construction.

• Quote of the day: “It was a good run for a while but the last two years have not allowed us to make the money we need in order to stay open and operate. It has not been an easy decision to make but it’s what’s best for my business and family moving forward,” — Mike Patterson, owner of Mike’s Vintage Toys, in the Oregon District.

• Dayton Dragons: Cincinnati Reds prospect Cam Collier is scheduled to have surgery to repair a torn left thumb ligament. He hit .248 with 20 homers and 74 RBIs for the Dragons last season.

• Thing to do: Here is a guide to events celebrating St. Patrick’s Day in the Dayton region.

• Vintage Dayton: Dayton’s Goddess of Liberty, once a downtown relic, stood over Fifth and Main for 90 years.

• Photo of the day: Tipp City Mayor Logan Rogers took part in the Downtown Tipp City Partnership’s eighth annual St. Paddy’s Beer Crawl on Friday. Check out more Beer Crawl photos from Tom Gilliam here.