Dayton lost 66-59 to Cincinnati in its final non-conference game last Friday. There was only about a one-minute stretch late in the second half where the Flyer Faithful thought its team might win. Had Nate Santos got a reverse layup to fall with 82 seconds to play, Dayton might have completed the 18-point comeback.
“I wanted it bad,” Santos said of the near miss. “I’m a little mad at that.”
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Dayton salvaged some pride with the second-half rally. For most of the night at the Heritage Bank Center, it looked like Cincinnati would do to Dayton what Dayton did to Cincinnati in an 82-68 victory a year earlier.
The seven-point loss shouldn’t hurt Dayton’s chances too much of making the NCAA tournament. It still has a strong chance with a 10-3 record and a 2-3 mark in Quadrant 1 games. It did exactly what I said it needed to do in non-conference play: win at least one game in Maui; beat either Marquette or Cincinnati; and win the other eight home games.
Entering Atlantic 10 Conference play, which begins next week, Dayton has one more Quad 1 victory than the rest of the league combined. The A-10 is 3-16 in Quad 1 games.
I think a 14-4 record in the A-10 should do the job for Dayton in regards to earning an at-large berth. If it loses more than four games and doesn’t win the NCAA tournament, it could be on the bubble when Selection Sunday arrives.
The last three times Dayton has earned a NCAA tournament bid, not counting 2020, 24 regular-season victories has been the magic number. Dayton will hit that number if it finishes 14-4 in A-10 play.
Dayton’s stay in top 25 was short
Credit: David Jablonski
Credit: David Jablonski
Victories against La Salle (8-5) and George Washington (11-2) in the first week of A-10 play could put Dayton back in the top 25. No one will be impressed if Dayton wins those games, but the Flyers are just on the edge of the top 25 and could move up if other teams lose this week and next.
Dayton received the 27th most votes this week, falling from the ranking after a one-week stay at No. 22. I kept Dayton in the top 25 at No. 20, and 23 other voters also ranked Dayton. Forty one people voted for it the previous week.
I value head-to-head matchups as much as possible, but I had no trouble moving Connecticut and Marquette, two teams Dayton beat, ahead of the Flyers this week. Marquette is 6-2 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. UConn is 5-3 in those games. Dayton is 3-3.
UConn also benefits from momentum, something I factor into the poll. It has won six straight games since finishing last in the Maui Invitational. The victory against UConn is looking better and better for Dayton.
Dayton starts A-10 play as the favorite
Credit: David Jablonski
Credit: David Jablonski
Dayton was the A-10 preseason favorite the last two years. It was picked to finish second in the preseason poll this season, but if there was a new poll after non-conference play, the Flyers would top it.
St. Bonaventure (12-1), Rhode Island (11-1) and George Washington (11-2) all built strong records against weak schedules. George Washington’s non-conference strength of schedule ranks last in the country out of 364 teams, according to KenPom.com. Rhode Island’s schedule ranks 315th. St. Bonaventure’s ranks 313th.
Dayton’s schedule ranked 49th. Everyone else in the A-10 ranked 190th and below in non-conference strength of schedule.
Dayton plays St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island and George Washington on the road this season and lost on the road to all three of them in 2023. That could happen again. Even if those three teams have played weak schedules, they’re still strong teams. How strong is the question. A-10 play will determine just how good the Bonnies, Rams and Revolutionaries are. Their schedules to this point have not given them a chance.
The preseason favorite VCU could live up to that billing, though its season to this point has been a disappointment. It did not have a Quad 1 opportunity and lost both of its Quad 2 games to Nevada and New Mexico. It also lost a Quad 3 game to Seton Hall, which finished 5-8 in non-conference play.
Fast Break
Here’s other news that might interest Flyer fans:
🏀 ESPN’s Joe Lunardi published his latest Bracketology piece on Christmas Eve. He has No. 8 seed Dayton playing No. 9 San Diego State in Lexington, Ky.
🏀 On The Athletic, before Friday’s game against Cincinnati, Brendan Marks wrote that Dayton “looks not just like the Atlantic-10 favorite, but like a team that could do serious damage in the NCAA Tournament. Had Dayton not surrendered a 21-point lead to North Carolina in the Maui Invitational, we might be talking about the Flyers as a borderline top-10 team. Really. Don’t sleep on Anthony Grant’s squad.”
🏀 Loyola Chicago (9-4) finished last in the Diamond Head Classic this week, falling to Oakland, Charleston and Murray State.
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