“For the 2024 holiday retail sales forecast, the Economics Center is projecting a 1.1% increase in relevant retail spending,” said Brad Evans, UC Economics Center director of research.
Dayton is expected to see a similar increase of 1.7%, according to the Economics Center, which is up from Dayton’s previous 0.8% downturn projected last year. Total relevant sales are expected to be more than $2 billion in the Dayton metro area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble counties.
“The Dayton region has a wealth of wonderful shops, restaurants and retailers that are entirely unique to our community,” said Stephanie Keinath, vice president of strategic initiatives at the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce. “I encourage you to get out there and discover some that might be new to you, and support them through the holiday season and beyond.”
The Cincinnati metro area is expected to see a minimal increase of .6% compared to 2023 holiday shopping.
All nine metro areas researchers analyzed in Ohio will experience an increase in holiday relevant retail sales in 2024 compared to 2023, Evans said. Mansfield and Columbus areas will see the largest increases of 7.3% and 5.3%, respectively.
“The retail sector in Ohio represents about 18% of the state’s GDP (gross domestic product),” said Gordon Gough, president and CEO of the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, which commissions the annual holiday shopping season forecast from the UC Economics Center.
| Metro area | 2023 sales | 2024 forecast | Growth rate (2023-2024) | Share of the state in 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | $1,810 | $1,835 | 1.4% | 6.0% |
| Cincinnati | $4,903 | $4,931 | 0.6% | 16.2% |
| Cleveland | $5,355 | $5,377 | 0.4% | 17.7% |
| Columbus | $6,259 | $6,588 | 5.3% | 21.7% |
| Dayton | $2,018 | $2,053 | 1.7% | 6.7% |
| Lima | $264 | $271 | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Mansfield | $274 | $294 | 7.3% | 1.0% |
| Toledo | $1,525 | $1,528 | 0.2% | 5.0% |
| Youngstown | $981 | $1,023 | 4.3% | 3.4% |
Nationally, a record 183.4 million people are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, according to the National Retail Federation.
“Consumers are prioritizing gift-giving for the most important people in their lives, and retailers are prepared to help customers find everything on their shopping lists at great prices throughout the season,” said Katherine Cullen, the National Retail Foundation’s vice president of industry and consumer Insights.
Retailers say they are ready for holiday shoppers and are encouraging consumers to take part in holiday deals.
“There’s always a lot of excitement around Black Friday,” said Sean Espy, manager of the Moraine Walmart. “We’re closed on Thanksgiving, so everybody just has to come to Walmart to see what’s going on, to see those exciting new items. Of course, we understand that inflation is a concern for a lot of families, but we offer a lot of great deals.”
Ohio’s labor market indicators, such as employment and wages, have improved since 2020, corresponding with the COVID-19 pandemic recovery. These factors, as well as issues like inflation and household debt, can all contribute to what holiday gift-giving will be like this year.
Employment in Ohio during 2023 was 6.8% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2020, according to the UC Economics Center. Additionally, wages and salaries in Ohio have increased by approximately 20% between 2020 and 2023.
Employment and wages are higher, but inflation continues to be on Americans’ minds as they head into the holidays.
Inflation in the Midwest has been increasing at higher rates since 2020. Inflation in the Midwest increased by 5.7% between September 2020 and September 2021 and increased by 8.1% between September 2021 and September 2022, according to the UC Economics Center’s research.
However, inflation in the Midwest slowed to 2.5 % between September 2023 and September 2024. To curb rising inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, but has cut interest rates twice since September 2024.
When asked about the tariffs President-elect Donald Trump has proposed and if those may cause consumers to hesitate with their shopping plans, Evans said it is unclear what will happen.
“We know Trump has certainly campaigned on using tariffs as part of his economic policy, though it remains to be seen if he intends on enacting tariffs or if he is using the threat of a tariff or tariffs as a way to negotiate better trade deals,” Evans said.
By the numbers
- Nationally, a record 183.4 million people are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year.
- The national figure is up from the previous record of 182 million in 2023, and it is 18.1 million more than the number of shoppers seen five years ago in 2019.
- A 1.1% increase in holiday spending is projected for Ohio, resulting in $30.4 billion in sales.
- A 1.7% increase in holiday spending is projected for Dayton, resulting in more than $2 billion in sales.
- The state’s three largest metro areas will account for more than half, or 55.6%, of estimated relevant retail sales this holiday season.
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