How will things shake out? After analyzing the data and listening to/communicating with some of the best political minds in the country (from both parties), this is where I believe things stand today.
Sherrod Brown ekes out a victory. Brown, a Democrat, has served the state well since 2006. Bernie Moreno’s effective ads notwithstanding, why dump an excellent Senator for a car salesman simply because his party dominates Ohio politics? I think (hope) voters see that.
Ohio’s Issue 1 passes: It’ll pass easily, with 55 percent of the vote or so. Voters are fed up. They twice told lawmakers to draw redistricting maps fairly, and the GOP said, nah, we don’t care what you want. All of the shameful lies distorting the measure’s purpose (by the GOP) won’t work. Here comes fair restricting, and it’s about time. Thank you, Maureen O’Connor, former Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice, for spearheading this effort.
Republicans keep control of the Ohio Supreme Court: Party designations for judges harm the judiciary by bringing partisanship into the law. But we (sadly) have that in Ohio. Few people know anything about who’s running besides party labels. The court currently has a 4-3 GOP majority, and with three open seats, it should expand.
The White House winner will be … For the longest, I’ve thought Donald Trump. But a number of developments have given me pause. Several courts have issued vote-counting rules that favor Democrats. For example, the Nevada Supreme Court ruled it’s OK to count ballots that arrive up to three days after Election Day even if they don’t have a postmark “that can be determined.” Trump has already started railing (without evidence) about fraud in Pennsylvania, which makes me think his team has bad news there. I still think Trump has the edge, but in the final days, Harris has made a push.
Republicans win the Senate, Democrats the House. When I first wrote this, I had all three branches of government in Republican hands. But a number of left-leaning statewide initiatives — ranked-choice voting, abortion, wages and more — will help down-ballot Democrats get the votes they need. Voters should pay attention to these races because the results will determine whether we have single-party control of the government. One-party rule disenfranchises half of the country that voted for the other side.
Election angst. I’m growing more concerned about political violence. We’ve already seen it with two attempts on Trump’s life. Terrorists (that’s what they are) have burned drop boxes in Oregon and Washington and officials have no way of knowing whose vote now won’t be counted. Those aren’t contested states (Harris will win them) but what if this happened in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Georgia? That would lead to a crisis for which there’s no easy solution.
Trump is already riding the fraud train, and his election-denying cronies have already said they will challenge results they don’t like. Fraud + angst = trouble. There will be conservative groups that advocate appointing an alternate slate of electors, challenging the results in court and more, all of which send people into a tizzy. While I would like to think that common sense will prevail, the last eight years show us that conspiracy is the new rationality.
This is a razor-thin election in which either candidate can win in an electoral college landslide yet not take a single swing state by more than 0.5% of the vote. Ohio’s not a swing state, but voters should cast their ballots anyway. Those who willfully decide not to vote help diminish a right we take for granted — participating in a democracy and being part of the process.
In November 2020, nearly 74% of eligible voters cast ballots. That’s a good number that should be better. With all of the important issues facing the people of Ohio, there’s no excuse not to top that.
Ray Marcano’s weekly column is published in print on Sundays.
About the Author