How else would you explain that Americans suddenly have a rosier outlook on the economy?
The index of consumer sentiment increased in the first survey taken after the election, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. It’s no surprise that Republicans feel better than Democrats.
Some 45% of those surveyed said they were worse off under the Biden administration, according to preliminary exit poll data taken on Election Day by ABC News. President-elect Trump campaigned on inflation’s crippling effect on families.
Now? Not so much.
The shift highlights that perception is the new reality. I mean, does anyone believe the economy improved between Nov. 4 and 5?
It didn’t. Inflation, while controlled, (2.6% in October) is still a problem that impacts the lower and middles classes. The numbers were no better or worse a day later.
Trump’s victory was the only thing that changed. That led to a new economic happy place that isn’t grounded in fact. The air smells cleaner and the roses bloom wider when your guy wins, right?
Let me illustrate. I went to the grocery store three days before Thanksgiving. Shopping isn’t unusual for me. I cook most days of the week and have a keen eye for prices, which, in some cases, were nothing short of outrageous.
My wife makes a traditional Puerto Rican meal of arroz amarillo con habichuelas rojas, pernil. plantanos and empanadas con carne. That’s yellow rice and red beans, pork, fried plantains and meat pies. (I plan on smoking the turkey soon).
The pork shoulder was a great deal at $1.99 a pound, as was the $0.49 per pound turkey.
But the ground beef was a staggering $7.99/pound. Yes, it’s cheaper in the prepackage logs but those always seem mushy and tasteless to me. I purchased a quart of whipping cream and two bags of dark chocolate for a batch of chocolate mousse. What cost me $8 a year ago now costs $14, making a once economical dessert on the pricey side.
I wasn’t the only one who noticed. One of my favorite sports involved watching guys who rarely shop for groceries trying to navigate a store while reading the wife’s shopping list. Among the refrains I overheard:
“Butter costs how much?”
“When did potatoes get to be $7 a bag?”
“Carrots are $1.69 a pound? They were just like half that weren’t they?”
“This can’t be. $5 for pie crust?”
Yes, it can be.
All throughout the store, the griping about prices has become as common as Thanksgiving seconds. Checkout lines are now gathering places to commiserate over sticker shock as November 29 dinner cost an estimated $58.08 per person --- less than the last two post-Covid years but 19% more than 2019.
The perception that the economy is better won’t make it so. It’s always been good for people in the stock market and upper end of the income scale, but not for working people.
Despite Trump’s pledge to bring groceries prices down, he won’t. No president, over the long haul, succeeds because it’s difficult to convince corporations to give up profits by cutting costs and providing relief for consumers. Moreover, liberal and conservative economists worry that Trump’s spending plans might reignite inflation.
When the public finally catches on and sees prices aren’t coming down, the Trump administration will simply blame Biden and make up some reason his supporters will buy.
That’s why perception as reality is so dangerous. Trump supporters should feel good that their guy got elected.
They won’t feel so good when they’re doing group therapy at the checkout line.
“$5 for hotdogs? Are you kidding me?”
Ray Marcano’s column appears on these pages each Sunday. His free newsletter, Rational Reason, looks at political and societal issues and can be found here.