SUDDES: Political forecasts for Ohio in 2024

Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. You can reach him at tsuddes@gmail.com.

Credit: LARRY HAMEL-LAMBERT

Credit: LARRY HAMEL-LAMBERT

Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. You can reach him at tsuddes@gmail.com.
Ideas & Voices
By Thomas Suddes
Dec 25, 2023
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Given that 2024 is on Santa’s heels, here are some fearless forecasts about Political Ohio as the New Year beckons:

  • Sen. J.D. Vance, a Cincinnati Republican, could become Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate, and not just because Vance would like that spot. A possible fly in the ointment (at this writing): Polls suggest Trump, as of today, would carry Ohio no matter who his running mate is. Side note: Were a Trump-Vance ticket elected, Republicans would still hold Vance’s Senate seat because GOP Gov. Mike DeWine would name Vance’s successor.
  • Assuming it makes the ballot despite courthouse carpet-bombing by Republicans, Ohio voters will in November ratify the proposed statewide anti-gerrymandering issue (“Citizens not Politicians”), clearing the way for competitive General Assembly districts. Fair districts would prune the GOP’s rigged supermajorities in the Ohio House and the state Senate.
  • The three Republicans vying for the GOP’s Senate nomination – to challenge incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown – are state Sen. Matt Dolan, of Chagrin Falls; Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose; and Westlake entrepreneur Bernie Moreno. Name recognition alone could give LaRose, of Upper Arlington, an edge – but Dolan and Moreno are or will be far better funded. And Tuesday, in a potential game-changer, Trump endorsed Moreno – a huge boost for Moreno.
  • Democrats will do their all to win Senate re-election for Brown. Still, as previously noted, only one popularly elected U.S. senator from Ohio has won four terms –Democrat John Glenn.
  • Some time in 2024, a Cincinnati-based federal grand jury will indict more players in Ohio’s House Bill 6 scandal, which has already sent former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, a Perry County Republican, and former Republican State Chair Matthew Borges, of Bexley, to prison.
  • March 19′s primary election could be decisive in whether Republican Ohio House Speaker Jason Stephens, of Lawrence County’s Kitts Hill, is positioned for re-election as speaker for 2025-26. Lame-duck Senate President Matt Huffman, a Lima Republican, aims to return to the House and seek the speakership for himself. Whether that happens may be determined by the outcome of some key Ohio House Republican nominating contests in the March primary election.
  • Before or after the primary, the legislature’s focus during the 2024 session, besides re-election, will be passage of a two-year capital improvements (state construction) bill. There’s nothing like ground-breakings and ribbon-cuttings to imply to a General Assembly member’s district that she or he actually does something in Columbus besides schmooze and party.
  • Because term-limits will retire DeWine in 2027, backroom jockeying for the GOP’s 2026 gubernatorial nomination will continue between Republican Attorney General David Yost and Republican Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, although LaRose – if he doesn’t land the GOP Senate nomination – is also a possibility. (Potential GOP candidate for attorney general: State Auditor Keith Faber, of Celina, an Ohio State law grad.)
  • The General Assembly’s Republicans will continue to bully sexual minorities at every opportunity, despite the damage that does to what’s left of Ohio’s reputation as a place to live.

In that connection, it’s unknown at this writing whether DeWine will sign, veto, or let become law without his signature trans-bashing Substitute House Bill 68, a demagogic measure passed by General Assembly Republicans (minus Sen. Nathan Manning, of North Ridgeville, who voted “no”).

How the governor deals with that bill will help define his Statehouse legacy. In this year’s state of the state speech, DeWine said, “There is no question – Ohio is on the move!” But he didn’t say in which direction. What DeWine does with HB 68 will make that clear.

Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. You can reach him at tsuddes@gmail.com.

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Thomas Suddes