Dayton job stats 2023: Great start, late whimper, optimism looking ahead

Mark DeBruin, of Skuld, LLC, right, talks with Andrea Kunk, of Peerless Technologies Corporation, at the Jobs Ohio and the Dayton Development Coalition luncheon at the West Social Tap and Table, Friday, Oct. 20, 2023. MARSHALL GORBY\STAFF

Mark DeBruin, of Skuld, LLC, right, talks with Andrea Kunk, of Peerless Technologies Corporation, at the Jobs Ohio and the Dayton Development Coalition luncheon at the West Social Tap and Table, Friday, Oct. 20, 2023. MARSHALL GORBY\STAFF

After hiring got off to a very hot start last year, employers in the Dayton region cut jobs or saw no gains in three out of the last four months, according to preliminary, seasonally adjusted federal labor data.

The local economy added more new net jobs through the first eight months of 2023 than during any year on record. But after that, the local job market sputtered and the total job gains in 2023 were decent but not exceptional, the data show.

Some local leaders and experts say the local economy has been doing well and has a rosy outlook moving forward.

Over the past 18 months, the Dayton region has seen JobsOhio investment announcements from Honda/LG, Joby Aviation and many others, said Chris Kershner, president and CEO of the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce.

“These two mega investments alone will generate up to $4.5 billion in direct investments, over $100 million in infrastructure investments and over 4,700 advanced manufacturing jobs in the Dayton region,” he said. “The Dayton area and Ohio will realize the benefits of these investments for generations to come.”

Chris Kershner, CEO and president of the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce, speaks at a press conference. CORNELIUS FROLIK / STAFF

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The U.S. economy created 353,000 jobs in January — far more than economists expected and the most in a year. Ohio created 7,000 new jobs in December, after losing jobs for the first time in a year in November (-4,500).

The Dayton metro area saw employment gains in seven of the first eight months of last year, creating 8,000 new jobs, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That was the most new net jobs the region has ever seen during that time frame, according to records that date back to 1990. Through August, the metro area on average was adding 1,000 jobs per month.

But the metro area then lost 1,300 jobs in September, regained 700 jobs in October and then shed 1,200 jobs in November, before seeing no gains in December, according to preliminary, seasonally adjusted data that may be revised.

The region ended up netting 6,200 new jobs last year. The metro area added 7,900 net jobs in 2022 and 7,400 in 2021.

2023 had an important economic milestone: In July, the region finally replaced all of the jobs that were lost during COVID.

Deborah Neely from RMHC talks with Victor Kallon at the Montgomery County Workforce Development Services Spring Job Fair Thursday, April 27, 2023 at the University of Dayton Arena. MARSHALL GORBY\STAFF

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The metro area — which consists of Montgomery, Miami and Greene counties — saw a massive and unprecedented job loss in 2020 (-19,700). That occurred during the first year of COVID-19, when there were lockdowns and stay-at-home orders and massive disruptions in the labor market.

The Dayton region has added jobs year-over-year for 33 consecutive months.

Despite a lukewarm end to 2023, local leaders have said they feel very optimistic about the region’s economic outlook for 2024.

Thousands of new jobs are headed to southern and central Ohio because of planned investments by Joby Aviation Inc., Honda/LG Solution and Intel.

Joby Aviation is expected to create 2,000 new jobs in Montgomery County, while Honda/LG Solution are on track to create slightly more jobs than that in Fayette County and Intel is bringing 3,000 new jobs to Licking County, although that project may open in 2026 rather than 2025.

“Companies are investing in the Dayton region because we are ready,” said Kershner, with the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce. “We have the infrastructure and business climate to support this growth through our coordinated workforce pipeline, higher education community, vocational skills training, transportation network and an outstanding quality of life.”

When companies shed jobs, the regional labor market is so competitive that workers from in-demand industries can quickly find new opportunities, said Julie Sullivan, executive vice president of regional development with the Dayton Development Coalition.

“We’ve seen record growth over the last three years in the metrics DDC tracks, like committed jobs, payroll, and capital investment,” she said. “In 2023, the Dayton region had tremendous success in closing projects in a year that was soft for most other communities around the state and across the country.”

Sullivan said the coalition last year saw the second highest levels of job creation and capital investment on record and the highest new payroll. The coalition focuses on 10 specific industry sectors.

The metrics represent future activity since companies usually have three years to grow or establish their operations and meet job goals they announce, Sullivan said. Therefore, she said, the jobs may not be reflected in this type of metric until several years after a project is announced.

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