The national average could fall below $3 per gallon as early as October for the first time since May 2021, De Haan said.
Consecutive weeks of decline this time of year are normal and typically only affected if hurricanes drive prices up toward the end of summer, he said.
“We’ve been able to avoid that this summer, plus demand has been lower for most of the summer,” De Haan told this news outlet Monday. “The consumer is just not driving as much and so, coupled with lower demand, summer gasoline supplies built up to adequate levels.”
Falling demand as Americans drive less with the onset of fall paired with Monday’s switchover to winter gasoline, plus increased output by oil refineries means falling prices should persist, De Haan said.
“I think prices will bounce up every couple weeks, as they tend to do in Ohio because of price cycling, but I do think that will probably stick to close to three bucks a gallon,” he said. “There’ll be days when prices shoot up to over $3, and then there’ll be a lot of time spent below $3, but what you see now will probably slightly improve as we get closer to the holidays as well.”
Price cycles come where stations raise prices 25 to 40 cents a gallon after ignoring minor fluctuations in the market and undercut each other by a penny or two each day until they run out of margin.
There are now 18 states and more than 65,000 of the nation’s 150,000 gas stations with gas prices below $3 per gallon, De Haan said.
“With oil prices falling below $70 per barrel, their lowest since 2021, there’s solid room for gas prices and diesel to continue falling for some time,” he said on his blog.
In addition, the national average price of diesel has fallen 5 cents in the last week and stands at $3.60 per gallon — the lowest since early 2022.
Ohio, on Thursday, was the 14th state to see average gas prices fall below $3 per gallon, he said. On Monday, the average price for per gallon was $2.92, down 51 cents from a month ago and 71 cents from a year ago, according to AAA.
Dayton, Springfield and Cincinnati had fallen 57 cents, 55 cents and 58 cents, respectively compared to a month ago and 83 cents, 75 cents and 79 cents respectively, from a year ago.
Some Southwest Ohio stations saw prices fall to as low as $2.55 a gallon Monday morning, according to daytongasprices.com. In Springfield and in Butler County, the lowest price was $2.58 and $2.59, respectively, according to GasBuddy.com.
De Haan said the large gap between gas prices at this time last year and Monday’s average price is due to “smooth sailing” this summer when it comes to oil production.
“Essentially, refineries went down unexpectedly (at the end of last summer) and ... that caused prices a year ago to spike,” he said.
Besides low demand, falling oil costs are also contributing to the dip in gas prices, and there’s room for gas to get even cheaper, according to AAA.
“We’re headed into the fall season and we’ve just started the downtrend of the peak travel season,’ said AAA spokeswoman Kara Hitchens. “We still have refineries that are going to be going through maintenance and then switching over to their winter blends, so we still expect to see some (decline).”
Hitchens said for those who have the freedom to take advantage of falling gas prices and hit the road now would find it an opportune moment to do so.
“There are fewer crowds, milder temperatures,” she said. “Those folks who aren’t tied to the home with children (going) back to school, it’s a great time of year.”
About the Author
