Grocery prices appear to be easing as shoppers seek relief in the Dayton area

But is there reason to be optimistic? Grocery inflation seems to be cooling, with prices going up just more than 1% in the past year, as opposed to nearly 5% the year before. The Consumer Price Index recently released its July report, which puts inflation at the lowest it has been since March 2021.

However, given continued problems from the COVID-19 pandemic, higher profit margins for big chains, and an extra-hot summer, it may take some time for your grocery bill to go down.

On a recent day, this news organization checked prices at Aldi, Kroger, Meijer, Dot’s Market and Dorothy Lane Market in person and online for several popular items. Prices we checked included milk (one gallon, 2%), eggs (one dozen, grade A), iceberg lettuce (one head), ground beef (one pound), butter (one pound), and bread (one loaf), using either the store brand or the same specific name brand.

At Meijer, the bill would have been $22.46. At Kroger, you would have paid a similar $22.29. Dot’s was a little higher ($25.33), and Dorothy Lane higher still ($29.93). Aldi was lower ($15.67), but with an asterisk. They didn’t carry a few of the national brands we measured, and their store brands were much cheaper.

Aldi and Dorothy Lane are both a bit different than your average supermarket chain. Aldi offers a more limited product selection than other stores, with few name brands. Usually there’s only one option for any given product. Dorothy Lane, which is locally owned, offers more specialty products and focuses on offering products from area farms and businesses.

“We try to (work with) local farmers” said Jo Ann Patts, customer resources director for the Dorothy Lane Market in Springboro, adding that they offer “organic and non-organic produce”

It’s no secret that prices in general have gone up over the past several years. In a 2011 Dayton Daily News price comparison, the most expensive carton of eggs ($1.69. Kroger and Dorothy Lane Market) cost less than the cheapest eggs we found this summer ($1.99, Aldi). A carton of eggs at Kroger is now $2.49, just under 50% more than it used to be. Eggs at Dorothy Lane were $3.39, about twice their price 13 years ago.

Are food costs still increasing?

Food prices have gone up substantially over the past four years. Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by software company Trace One PLM found that, from March 2020 to March 2024, the cost of food at home rose by 24.7%.

Individual foods get more expensive at different rates. For example, eggs cost 50% more than they did in March 2020, while bananas cost 7% more.

Some pandemic-era price spikes seem to be easing. The price of eggs decreased 6.8% in the past year, while milk decreased 1 to 2%. Despite this trend, individual food prices are still notably higher than pre-COVID levels.

“Everything’s higher” said shopper Jan Burden, of Springboro, describing what has felt like a “steady increase” in prices over the past two years.

Kristin Mullins, CEO of the Ohio Grocer’s Association, said that the grocery industry is still dealing with lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We had severe supply chain interruptions and we’re still, believe it or not, sorting it out,” Mullins said.

Are profits a factor?

In early August 2023, the Federal Trade Commission announced an investigation into the high cost of groceries. In March, it released a report that said increased profit margins at large, national retailers were driving up prices post-pandemic. In its report, the FTC highlighted retail grocery revenues exceeding total costs by 7% in 2023, above the last peak of 5.6% in 2015.

Mullins said the Ohio Grocer’s Association supports the investigation, as unfair practices by large chains can hurt independent grocers. She said that most grocery stores operate at a 1-2% profit margin.

“It certainly contributes to the ability of our smaller stores to remain competitive in the market” Mullins said.

Summer heat isn’t helping

Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University, said summer heat can drive prices up even more , as extreme heat can reduce crop yields. These reduced yields can drive up prices along the agricultural supply chain, ending on your grocery receipt.

“I believe, for the next couple of months, we will likely see higher fruit and vegetable prices, if we have this hot summer continue,” said Lee.

When exactly that will happen is difficult to time, though. Lee said that stores’ current inventory may help protect from price hikes, but eventually production costs will catch up.

Ty Higgins, communications director for the Ohio Farm Bureau, said that despite a good start to the growing season, “Mother Nature turned off the spigot.”

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, portions of southern Ohio are affected by dry conditions. Large parts of Darke County, which has the second-largest number of farms in the state, are currently experiencing “abnormally dry” conditions.

Looking ahead

In July, the United States Department of Agriculture released its Food Price Outlook for 2024 and 2025, predicting that food inflation will continue to slow down. Further, they predicted that the prices of dairy, eggs, and fresh fruit will continue decreasing. Wages are also increasing faster than grocery prices.

While some stores tend to be more expensive than others, switching where you shop for certain products can help save a few dollars. As can switching to store brands or buying in bulk whenever possible. Lisa Carlin, a writer at the Dayton Mom Collective, has written that planning meals for whatever period you’re shopping for and sorting your list by which stores have lower prices can help.

Other writers for the collective suggest using rewards apps for stores or coupon apps like Fetch and Ibotta. It’s also worth holding onto the coupons, flyers, and receipts you get from stores.

Jeff Engram of Tipp City hasn’t been too upset by grocery prices lately, but he has found himself paying more attention to deals.

“I do look at coupons and flyers (in the mail) a lot more now” Engram said. “I used to throw them away.”