Local home sales drop, prices narrowly down as interest rates remain key issue

Those sales generated a dollar volume of $249 million, also a decrease of 24% versus last November. That translated to an average sale price of $223,178, down just 0.6% from last year’s $224,639. The median price of $190,000 was unchanged from last November, according to Dayton Realtors data.

The cause behind that flatline in sales is interest rates, according to Billie Duncan-Hart, president of Dayton Realtors.

“The feds said back in March that there would be four to six (rate hikes this year),” Duncan-Hart said. “They actually have done seven ... and they’re talking about continuing it into the new year.”

Many lenders currently list interest rates for a 30-year mortgage in Dayton between 6% and 7%. That’s after a long stretch from 2011-2021 when rates were often around 3-4%

Home listing entries in the Dayton area in November totaled 1,158, down 13% from last year, according to Dayton Realtors. The overall MLS inventory at month’s end showed 1,636 active properties available for sale, which translated to a supply of 1.5 months based on November’s resale rate.

Last year at the same time the inventory was tighter at 1,267 available listings, producing a supply ratio of under one month, Dayton Realtors said.

Duncan-Hart said December hasn’t been any better.

“Typically, December is always slower,” she said. “I look for (home sales) to be pretty flat, if not significantly down.”

Year-to-date sales showed 15,006 transactions reported, down nearly 7% compared to 2021. The sales volume of $3.6 billion through November was a 2% increase over 2021′s $3.5 billion, according to Dayton Realtors.

That’s because of an average sale price of $240,310 and a median sale price of $205,000, increases of 10% and 11%, respectively, compared to 2021.

“Although the amount of sales are down, prices are still up, and it’s all contributing to we are still low on inventory,” Duncan-Hart said. “That is the reason those sale prices are staying up. It’s a little hard to go backwards (in sale prices) for starters and then number two, it definitely is not going to go backwards when you are still experiencing low inventory, which we have been.”

Duncan-Hart said she is “a little bit surprised” home sales, which started to trail off and plateau in August, have flattened off so quickly.

She said said believes that’s because the Federal Reserve Board started increasing the interest rates “a little late in the game” and, in her opinion, a little too aggressively.

“I think they should have started it earlier in the year and not quite so aggressive,” Duncan-Hart said. “I think that’s why they’re still increasing the rates: They haven’t gotten the result that they had hoped for with inflation.

“They should have started earlier in the year, like January or February instead of March ... and they’ve been so aggressive on it that I think they kind of shot themselves in the foot.”

Home sales activity across the Ohio marketplace dipped in November, while average prices continued to rise, according to Ohio Realtors.

Home sales statewide this November reached 10,629, a 25.6% decrease from the 14,293 sales recorded during the same month a year ago, Ohio Realtors said. The average sales price across Ohio in November reached $252,167, a 4.9% increase from the $240,442 mark posted during the month in 2021.

Ohio Realtors President John Mangas said in a release that “despite the downturn in sales, the marketplace continued to experience an uptick in average price — a clear indication of consumer confidence that housing is a wise, long-term investment.”

Around Ohio, seven of the 14 markets tracked experienced an increase in average price for November compared to the same month in 2021. In addition, all of the state’s local markets saw a decline in sales activity compared to the previous year.