The fate of NATO could be decided in Dayton

The world’s eyes will be on Dayton.

“Imagine: the most active members of Parliament across the world’s most powerful military alliance will descend upon Dayton,” said Edward P. Joseph, adjunct lecturer with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “What’s more, the (Parliamentary Assembly) occurs in Dayton at a critical moment in Trans-Atlantic relations, with the war in Ukraine in acute focus.”

The Parliamentary Assembly could get a lot of international attention because of questions about America’s future commitment and approach to the alliance as European leaders and U.S. President Donald Trump take differing views on how to end the bloodiest conflict in Europe since NATO was formed after World War II.

What is NATO?

NATO stands for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO was the first ever peacetime security alliance the United States entered into outside of the Western hemisphere, said Christopher McKnight Nichols, the Hayes Chair in National Security at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies at The Ohio State University.

America only once before entered into a binding security alliance with another country, and that was the agreement it reached with France in the 1770s to try to win the Revolutionary War, Nichols said.

NATO is a security alliance based on collective defense, which is the idea that an attack on one ally is an attack against all members.

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

Created in 1949, NATO originally had 12 member countries from Europe and North America. It now has 32.

The most recent additions were Sweden (2024) and Finland (2023). Both countries for a long time had military neutrality but they applied for NATO membership shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

By creating NATO and taking a leadership role, the United States was hoping to be guarantor of world peace, especially Western peace, Nichols said. NATO was formed to try to prevent war and communist and Soviet expansion in Europe after World War II.

Dayton hosts NATO

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly holds two sessions each year, and Dayton will welcome the spring session between May 22 to 26.

Downtown Dayton will become a “NATO Village” security zone that only people with the right clearance and credentials will be able to access.

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly is coming to Dayton to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which ended the war in Bosnia. U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Dayton, was a driving force behind bringing NATO to Dayton.

Turner was elected President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in 2014, and he served in that role until 2016. He also previously served as the chairman of the U.S. delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.

Without the 30th anniversary of the Peace Accords, Dayton might have been an unusual choice for a host city.

Credit: MICHAEL HEINZ

Credit: MICHAEL HEINZ

The Gem City (pop. 135,500 residents) is much smaller than other cities that have put on NATO Parliamentary Assembly events.

Dayton also does not have the same kinds of bright lights and global profiles of other recent host cities like Montreal, Canada (pop. 1.7 million); Sofia, Bulgaria (1.2 million residents); Madrid, Spain (3.2 million); Copenhagen, Denmark (roughly 640,000) and Vilnius, Lithuania (more than 550,000).

The last NATO Parliamentary Assembly session held in America took place in Orlando, Florida in 2003.

The peace accords are Dayton’s major connection to NATO — which also played a key role in ending the war in Bosnia and in enforcing the peace agreement, said Joseph.

Joseph was a U.S. Army soldier who deployed with NATO’s implementation force soon after the Dayton agreement was signed. He said this was NATO’s first-ever peace operations mission.

Credit: NYT

Credit: NYT

Dayton Mayor Jeffrey Mims Jr. and Rep. Turner say the NATO event will help showcase the community.

Some local leaders believe the event could inject millions of dollars into the local economy, given that there could be more than 1,000 visitors, which should benefit local hotels and other businesses.

Nichols said the NATO Parliamentary Assembly is an important body that discusses major security issues and threats facing member nations,.

“It’s an excellent thing for Dayton to have coming there,” he said.

Ukraine major focus

Nichols said he expects that Ukraine and its war with Russia will be a major focus of discussions during the spring session.

He said he believes the subtext of the meetings and discussions will be what NATO can expect the United States moving forward under the Trump Administration.

Right now there’s a lot uncertainty about America’s commitment to NATO.

On the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, NATO Parliamentary Assembly leaders issued a statement expressing “unequivocal condemnation of Russia’s aggression and of the assistance provided to it by the Belarusian, Chinese, North Korean and Iranian regimes.”

“As we mark three years of this brutal aggression, we want to reaffirm our Assembly’s longstanding position of unwavering support for Ukraine, its sovereignty, territorial integrity, right to self-defense, and self-determination. We also remain committed to supporting Ukraine on its path towards NATO membership,” the statement says.

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

Trump meanwhile is a critic of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his administration called NATO membership for Ukraine unrealistic.

Rep. Turner recently wrote an editorial in the Dayton Daily News that says Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a “brutal and unprovoked invasion” of Ukraine. Turner said “this war is not just about Ukraine – it is about the future of global security, the strength of NATO, and the resolve of the free world in the face of authoritarian aggression.”

But Trump this month apparently blamed Ukraine for the war with Russia, and he has called President Zelenskyy a “dictator.”

Zelenskyy has accused Trump of believing and spreading “Russian disinformation.”

Trump administration officials have been in talks with Russia to end the war, but Ukraine says it has not been involved in the discussions.

President Trump on multiple occasions in his first term said he is willing to consider pulling out of NATO.

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

Nichols said this is worrisome because NATO has been very successful at deterring wars and conflict in Europe.

“That would be a huge transition and would really mark an abrupt break from the Cold War and post-Cold War world,” Nichols said. “I think it’s a major issue and I wouldn’t support it.”

About two-thirds of Americans want to see the U.S. increase or maintain its commitment to NATO, says a February 2024 Gallup poll.

Future of NATO

The Trump administration has already placed considerable strain on NATO as an alliance since his reelection, said Susan Colbourn, associate research professor with the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University.

Trump has threatened to take over Greenland, which is under the control of NATO ally Denmark, she said. She said Trump also has spoken openly about making Canada (another NATO member) into the 51st U.S. state.

The administration’s efforts to pursue a peace deal with the Russians without the Ukrainians — or any European countries — at the table sends a strong signal to other NATO allies, she said.

Colbourn said President Trump generally has a transactional view and approach toward NATO.

“It is not at all clear that President Trump would consider an attack on another member of NATO to be an attack on the United States that demanded a response, especially as he himself threatens economic coercion and the use of outright military force against other members of NATO,” she said.

Credit: NYT

Credit: NYT

Trump has claimed many times that other NATO members are not “paying their fair share,” insisting that they should be spending more money on defense. He has called for NATO’s European members to spend at least 5% of their GDP on defense.

Some other U.S. politicians have made similar criticisms, claiming that the U.S. unfairly is shouldering most of the burden of providing defense for the alliance.

Some U.S. lawmakers have long worried that America will be forced into conflicts that are against its interest because of the security pledge with member nations, experts say.

Joseph, with Johns Hopkins SAIS, said he expects there will be a lot of discussion at the NATO event in Dayton about Trans-Atlantic relations, Ukraine and efforts to stop the war, as well about the future of European security.

“I foresee good, solid discussions between members of Congress and their non-US counterparts who come from parliaments across the other 31 member states of NATO,” he said.