What experts are saying: How is the economy doing in Dayton?

The economic indicators are all over the place, some positive and some not, as this economy continues its 29 month journey through the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Dayton Daily News took at in-depth look at the numbers and talked to experts about what they mean for the Dayton region, the state and the U.S. and what people can expect in the months ahead as the nation grapples with inflation and signs of a slowing economy, even as robust job growth continues.

You can see the full story here: Job growth, moderating inflation spur hope amid recession fears

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Here are some additional things the experts had to say about this economy:

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Stuart Hoffman, senior economic advisor, PNC Financial Services Group

“Industrial production rose by a solid 0.6% in July, close to our above consensus forecast. This is another clear indication, along with the strong 528,000 rise in July payroll jobs, that the U.S. economy is not in recession, despite the two consecutive quarters of small declines in real gross domestic product. Indeed, real GDP growth is off to a solid start in the current quarter.”

Amanda Agati, chief investment officer, PNC Financial Services Group

“In July, equity markets delivered their best monthly return in nearly two years, with the S&P 500 up 9.2%. However, year-to-date returns remain firmly in negative territory. Given the market has experienced three other rallies of 5% or more this year only to quickly fizzle out and mark new lows for 2022, investors are wondering whether the most recent rally is just another false start. Based on the guideposts we monitor, we believe the probability for continued positive market momentum has increased.”

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Kevin Willardsen, associate professor of economics at Wright State University

“I’m kind of bearish. I think the jobs numbers are an upwards sign. I think people are putting a little too much emphasis on the unemployment rate. These yield curve inversions as they are becoming more more frequent are starting to concern me. I also think there is a fall in people’s disposable income. I think you are going to start to see consumer spending retract.”

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Kara Hitchens, public affairs manager Miami Valley AAA

“I would say road trips are still the highest mode of transportation that people are using this summer....Despite high gas prices people are still determined to go.”

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Matt Sheridan, senior lecturer in finance at Ohio State University

“For companies the question is can they pass off increased prices to consumers? For the better part of the year we’ve seen companies large and small raising prices and getting away with it.”

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Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors

“Has consumer price inflation peaked? More importantly, has the mortgage rate peaked? The slight deceleration in the latest reading suggests this, especially considering the sustained decline in oil prices. Consumer price inflation rose 8.5% in July compared to 9.1% in the prior month. That level is still high and uncomfortable but may indicate the start of a steady retreat.”

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Rea S. Hederman Jr. vice president of policy at The Buckeye Institute

“You can say inflation is moderating, but if you look how much food is going up that’s not comforting to a somebody that has to feed a family of four or five.”

Michael Shields, researcher at Policy Matters Ohio

“Firms have really taken advantage of this moment when people are enduring and expecting higher prices to not only cover their costs, they are boosting their profits. Inflation would be running about half of what it is today if that were not true.”