Bubble watch: The Mountain West Tournament is turning into a nightmare for other bubble teams

There’s now another threat that should have NCAA Tournament bubble teams fearful: the Mountain West Conference
The Texas bench watches play against the Tennessee during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the quarterfinal round of the Southeastern Conference tournament, Friday, March 14, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

The Texas bench watches play against the Tennessee during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the quarterfinal round of the Southeastern Conference tournament, Friday, March 14, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble picture:

Mountain mayhem

Although there will be no bid thieves in the top few conferences, there's now another threat that should have bubble teams fearful:

A five-bid Mountain West.

New Mexico, Utah State, San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State each came into that league's tournament with hopes of an at-large NCAA bid. Boise State and Colorado State's chances looked the shakiest, but on Friday night, they both won to advance to the championship game of the Mountain West Tournament. So one of them will definitely be in the NCAA Tournament — and perhaps both.

That's a concerning proposition for teams like Indiana, Texas and North Carolina, whose spots could end up going to Mountain West teams now.

The defense rests

While Boise State and Colorado State prepare to play for an automatic bid, Texas and North Carolina have finished their closing arguments. They both lost Friday, so there's nothing more they can do except wait until Selection Sunday.

Texas lost 83-72 to No. 8 Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, and North Carolina dropped a 74-71 heartbreaker to top-ranked Duke.

The experts say ...

ESPN's last four in: West Virginia, San Diego State, Xavier, Boise State.

CBS Sports' last four in: West Virginia, Boise State, Indiana, San Diego State.

Sports Illustrated's last four in: Arkansas, San Diego State, Indiana, Boise State.

ESPN's first four out: North Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Dayton.

CBS Sports' first four out: Xavier, Texas, North Carolina, Wake Forest.

Sports Illustrated's first four out: Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, UC Irvine.

Up next

Bubble teams will want to root for Memphis in the AAC and Virginia Commonwealth in the Atlantic 10, since those teams entering the at-large pool would squeeze everyone else even more. Memphis faces Tulane on Saturday and VCU takes on Loyola Chicago.

Automatic bids so far

SIU Edwardsville (Ohio Valley), Omaha (Summit), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), High Point (Big South), Drake (Missouri Valley), Wofford (Southern), Troy (Sun Belt), Robert Morris (Horizon), UNC-Wilmington (Coastal Athletic), St. Francis, Pa. (Northeast), Gonzaga (WCC), McNeese (Southland), American (Patriot), Montana (Big Sky).

Automatic bids at stake Saturday

America East (Bryant vs. Maine)

ACC (Duke vs. Louisville)

Big 12 (Houston vs. Arizona)

Big East (St. John's vs. Creighton)

Big West (UC San Diego vs. UC Irvine)

Conference USA (Liberty vs. Jacksonville State)

MAAC (Iona vs. Mount St. Mary's)

MAC (Akron vs. Miami, Ohio)

MEAC (Norfolk State vs. South Carolina State)

Mountain West (Boise State vs. Colorado State)

SWAC (Jackson State vs. Alabama State)

WAC (Utah Valley vs. Grand Canyon)

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North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis yells during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Duke in the semifinals of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament, Friday, March 14, 2025, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Credit: AP

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Credit: AP