Mexico, like any other country, is not obligated to accept non-Mexican migrants, but it has agreed to do so in the recent past, especially from countries like Cuba and Venezuela, which often refuse deportation flights from the United States, but may accept them from Mexico.
Mexican officials have said they are already making preparations if Trump follows through on his pledge to carry out large-scale deportations of migrants who lack the proper documents once he takes office on Jan. 20.
Mexico is obviously fearful of two things: large-scale deportations of Mexican citizens and large numbers of non-Mexicans being deported at border crossings that are ill-equipped to deal with them.
Experts estimate there are about 4 million Mexicans living in the U.S. without proper documentation. Mexico is already preparing its consular services in the U.S. with additional manpower to handle deportation cases involving its own citizens.
But third-country deported migrants pose a thornier challenge, and could include considerable numbers of Haitians, Cubans and Venezuelans.
Between 2022 and 2023, Mexico agreed to accept up to 30,000 migrants per month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, countries that are difficult for the U.S. to deport to for diplomatic or political reasons. That agreement is currently in place.
In late 2023, Venezuela said Mexico had repatriated about 300 Venezuelan migrants on two flights.
Such returns pose a monetary burden for the Mexican government. Mexico had offered some of the repatriated Venezuelans a stipend of about $110 per month for six months to help them re-establish themselves in their home countries.
However, the task of finding jobs, shelter and transportation for deported Mexicans would presents an even greater challenge for Mexico.
Migration has long been a sensitive issue between the two countries, and has become even more urgent following Trump's threat to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods unless the country does more to stem the flow of migrants and drugs.
In November, Trump claimed that Sheinbaum had "agreed to stop migration through Mexico" following a phone call between the two leaders. Sheinbaum, meanwhile, suggested Mexico was already doing its part and had no interest in closing its borders.
“We reiterate that Mexico’s position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and between peoples,” Sheinbaum said at the time.
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