U.S. stocks have largely been rallying to records on relief that interest rates are finally heading back down, now that the Federal Reserve has widened its focus to include keeping the economy humming instead of just fighting high inflation. Friday's blowout report on U.S. jobs growth raised optimism about the economy and hopes that the Fed can pull off a perfect landing for it.
The stronger-than-expected hiring pushed Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle to say he now sees just a 15% chance of a recession, down from 20%.
But Friday’s jobs report was so strong that it also forced traders to ratchet back forecasts for how much the Fed will ultimately cut interest rates by. That in turn has sent Treasury yields higher, and the 10-year yield is back above 4% for the first time since August.
The two-year Treasury yield also briefly climbed back above 4% Monday, up from just 3.50% a couple weeks ago. That’s a sizeable move for the bond market, and it can drag on prices for stocks and kinds of other investments.
When Treasury bonds, which are seen as the safest possible investments, are paying more in interest, investors become less inclined to pay very high prices for stocks and other things that carry bigger risk of losing money.
If that's the case, companies will need to deliver bigger profits to drive their stock prices much higher, and this week marks the start of the latest corporate earnings reporting season.
Analysts are forecasting S&P 500 companies will end up delivering 4.2% growth in their earnings per share for this past summer from a year earlier, led by technology and health care companies, according to FactSet. If those analysts are correct, it would be the fifth straight quarter of growth.
PepsiCo will report its latest quarterly results on Tuesday, but the momentum will really pick up on Friday. That's when JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of New York Mellon will report, as banks dominate the early days of reporting season.
Bank stocks were modestly higher on Monday, adding to gains from Friday when the stronger-than-expected jobs report raised hopes that customers will borrow more money and make good on paying it back.
Elsewhere on Wall Street, winemaker Duckhorn Portfolio more than doubled after a private-equity firm said it would buy the company for roughly $1.95 billion in cash.
They helped limit the market's decline following losses for utility stocks and real-estate owners, which tend to pay big dividends and see potential buyers leave when bonds are paying more in interest.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.01% from 3.97% late Friday.
The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, jumped more. It rose to 3.97% from 3.92%.
Treasury yields may also be feeling some upward push from the recent jump in oil prices. They've been spurting higher on worries that worsening tensions in the Middle East could ultimately lead to disruptions in the flow of crude.
Brent crude, the international standard, rose another 1.6% Monday to $79.27 per barrel. Benchmark U.S. crude, meanwhile, gained 1.6% to $75.58 per barrel.
In stock markets abroad, European indexes were moving modestly following bigger gains in Asia.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 1.8% after the value of the yen sank against the U.S. dollar. A weaker yen can boost profits for Japanese exporters.
Nintendo gained 4.4% following reports that a Saudi wealth fund was planning to increase its investment in the Kyoto, Japan-based video game maker.
Stock markets in mainland China will reopen on Tuesday from a weeklong holiday, and the government said it plans to explain details of plans for economic stimulus at a morning news conference in Beijing. Before the Oct. 1 National Day holiday began, stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen had soared following announcements of policies aimed at reviving China's struggling real-estate market.
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AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.