ANALYSIS: Breaking down Dayton’s performance in non-conference play

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, but even the best things can be dashed by the unpredictability of college basketball

The Flyers failed to build a resume worthy of earning a NCAA tournament at-large berth in five of coach Anthony Grant’s first six seasons. They weren’t close to the bubble a year ago after losing all five non-conference games to top-100 opponents.

This year has been different. Dayton has three Quad 1 victories, according to the current NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings, and no bad losses. By beating Longwood 78-69 on Saturday, it finished non-conference play with a 10-2 mark. That will be good enough to get it into the NCAA tournament if it performs well over the 18-game Atlantic 10 Conference schedule.

“As we close out the non-conference portion of the schedule, I think I like where we are,” Grant said, “but I think there’s still another gear that we can get to, and I think we will (get there).”

In its first two A-10 games, Dayton plays at Davidson (10-3) at 7 p.m. Wednesday and then plays a home game against Massachusetts (9-3) at 1 p.m. Sunday.

Before moving ahead, here’s a look at Dayton’s performance in non-conference play:

MVP: Junior forward DaRon Holmes II leads Dayton in scoring (17.7 points per game), rebounding (7.7) and blocks (2.3). He has made more 3-pointers (10 of 23) this season than in his first two seasons combined (7 of 26). Holmes also broke school records for career blocks and dunks less than halfway through his third season.

Best transfer: Junior guard Nate Santos ranks third on the team in scoring (12.0). He has more points (144) in 12 games than he scored in his last two seasons at Pittsburgh (116). He’s shooting 52.6% (20 of 38) from 3-point range after shooting 19.8% (16 of 81) the last two seasons. Among players who attempt at least two 3-pointers per game, he ranks 10th in the country.

Best freshmen: Petras Padegimas, one of three freshmen on the team, is averaging 8.5 minutes per game. He has made 4 of 7 3-pointers.

“For a freshman, (Padegimas) has done a really good job of competing,” Grant said, “and I think he’s done a good job of learning, offensively and defensively, our system. He’s got great size. I think he’s got a really bright future ahead of him. He’s got a really good IQ. I think he’s done a good job for us.”

The other two freshmen, Marvel Allen and Jaiun Simon, will redshirt this season.

Best shooter: Koby Brea is shooting 50.7% (38 of 75) from 3-point range. Among players who attempt at least 2.5 3s per game, he leads the nation. Brea overcame an April surgery on both legs to get back on the court for the start of preseason practices.

Worst injury: Junior point guard Malachi Smith suffered a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee in the first half of the season opener. He underwent surgery two days later and will miss the rest of the season. Smith has progressed from sitting behind the bench with a brace to sitting on the bench with the rest of his teammates without a brace.

Best comeback: In a 70-67 victory against LSU on Nov. 16 in the first round of the Charleston Classic, Dayton overcame a 60-45 deficit with a 19-2 run that stretched from the 8:55 mark to the 3:42 mark.

Biggest shot: Santos made a tie-breaking 3-pointer with 4.1 seconds remaining to beat LSU.

Most important victory: Dayton ended an eight-game losing streak in non-conference regular-season road games, beating Southern Methodist 65-63 on Nov. 29 in Dallas.

Best performance: Dayton beat Cincinnati 82-68 on Dec. 16 at the Heritage Bank Center in Cincinnati. It was the first meeting between the schools since 2010. Cincinnati (11-2) has since won three straight games and starts its first season in the Big 12 on Saturday at BYU.

Worst loss: Dayton shot 52.2% from 3-point range but still lost 71-66 at Northwestern on Nov. 10 in the second game of the season. Grant called it a “very winnable game.” The Wildcats are also 10-2 and have a victory against Purdue, the No. 1 team in the Associated Press top-25 poll, but also a loss to Chicago State, which ranks No. 299 in the NET.

Best stat: Dayton ranks second in the country in 3-point shooting percentage (41.7, 106 of 261). Only Baylor (44.8, 115 of 257) has shot better. In a 91-67 victory against Oakland on Dec. 20, the Flyers set a school record by making 18 3s on 34 attempts.

The single-season school record for 3-point shooting percentage is 39.2. That was set by the 1989-90 Flyers, who made 261 of 666 in 32 games.

Worst stat: The Flyers rank 301st in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (33.1), according to KenPom.com. That’s the worst mark for Dayton since the 2002-03 season (33.5).

“I hate to put it like this, but it comes down to ‘want to’ at the end of the day,” Grant said. “Who’s going to go get the ball? At times, we block out really well, but then you’ve got to go get the ball. Sometimes we get caught watching, and the other teams pursue it, and they’ll be first to the spot and they go get the ball. It’s not one thing. It’s not one guy. But I think it’s something that as a team, you recognize, ‘OK, this is what needs to happen,’ and you collectively go out and try to make that happen on every given night.”

Best quote: After the victory in Cincinnati, where Dayton had the edge in fan support miles from the UC campus, Holmes said, “It means a lot. We knew they were going to show up. That’s what they do. That’s their identity. It was great to see them out there. Wherever we go — we could be in Antarctica — they’re going to travel, come and support us. That’s the beauty of Dayton basketball.”

WEDNESDAY’S GAME

Dayton at Davidson, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network, 1290, 95.7