How will 2025 be remembered? A lot of that will have to do with how Dayton does in the 18 A-10 games between Tuesday and March 7 when it closes the regular season at Virginia Commonwealth.
With a 10-3 record in non-conference play, Dayton put itself in a strong position to earn a NCAA tournament at-large berth for the second straight season. Now it has to finish the job in conference play. The last five times (2024, 2020, 2017, 2016 and 2015) it has built a resume worthy of an at-large berth, it has not lost more than four A-10 games. In 2014, it earned a berth despite a 10-6 mark in A-10 play, though the A-10 was stronger than ever that season with six teams earning berths in the NCAA tournament.
In addition to wanting to lock up an at-large berth, Dayton will seek its first A-10 regular-season championship since 2020. It has finished second, second and third the last three seasons.
“It’ll be a competitive 18-game stretch,” Dayton forward Nate Santos said. “There’s definitely some goals ahead of us.”
A-10 play starts with seven games Tuesday. Here’s a breakdown of the league entering conference play:
Favorite: While Virginia Commonwealth earned the nod in the preseason poll, Dayton has emerged as the team to beat. It is the highest-ranked A-10 team in the NCAA Evaluation Tool at No. 40.
No. 55 St. Bonaventure (12-1), No. 69 VCU (10-3), No. 72 Rhode Island (11-), No. 88 George Mason (8-4) and No. 96 Saint Joseph’s (8-4) are also in the top 100. Richmond (5-7) is the lowest-ranked A-10 team at No. 265.
KenPom.com predicts Dayton will finish 14-4 in the A-10. It predicts VCU and St. Bonaventure will finish second and third at 13-5 and 12-6, respectively.
Most improved team: Rhode Island finished 9-22 in coach Archie Miller’s first season and 12-20 last season. In A-10 play, it was 5-13 and then 6-12. Its 11-1 start this season is its best since the 2009-10 season, though it has only one victory against a top-100 team in the NET: No. 75 Providence. Rhode Island leads the A-10 in 3-point shooting percentage (36.9).
Credit: David Jablonski
Credit: David Jablonski
Most disappointing team: Saint Louis was picked to finish fourth in large part because new coach Josh Schertz brought two of his top-three scorers, Swope and Avila, from Indiana State. The Billikens have struggled, however. They were 6-6 entering a game Saturday against William Woods, a NAIA school. They lost to Illinois State, Wofford and Grand Canyon in their three previous games by a combined eight points.
“This group will write its own story,” Schertz told longtime SLU beat writer Stu Durando after the Wofford game. “We have a lot of chapters left. I know a lot of people don’t feel that, but I haven’t given up on them at all.”
Worst start: Duquesne (4-8) started 0-6 under new coach Dru Joyce III. The Dukes have since won four of their last six games and earned their best victory four days before Christmas, beating UC Irvine 70-54 in Pittsburgh. Irvine (10-2) is No. 59 in the NET.
“What you look for out of your team as you go through the season is growth,” Joyce said in a press release. “Wins are great, losses hurt. But where are we going with it? Are we improving? Are we getting better? I think today’s game was the residual effects of us continuing to grow. Early in the season we had opportunities we let get away. Tonight we took another step as a program and as a team of figuring it out.”
Best victories: Dayton is 2-3 in Quadrant 1 games with victories Marquette and Connecticut, which rank ninth and 16th in the NET, respectively. The rest of the A-10 is 1-13 in Quad 1 games. Saint Joseph’s beat No. 17 Texas Tech (9-2) for the A-10′s only other Quad 1 victory.
Worst loss: Richmond lost 80-76 in double overtime to Bucknell (4-8), which is No. 248 in the NET. One season after tying Loyola Chicago for the A-10 regular-season championship with a 15-3 league mark, Richmond has its worst record through 12 games since the 2018-19 season.
Best new transfer: Chance Moore, a senior guard, leads St. Bonaventure in scoring (15.8). He played the last two seasons at Missouri State after one season at Arkansas.
Best true freshman: Rhode Island forward Tyrone Farrell has started 11 of 12 games while averaging 7.0 points and 4.0 rebounds. He has won the A-10 Rookie of the Week award twice.
Player of the year race: This is harder to predict than ever. Dayton forward DaRon Holmes II was the favorite entering league play last season and ended up sharing the award with Richmond guard Jordan King.
Max Shulga, a fifth-year guard at VCU, and Erik Reynolds II, a senior guard at Saint Joseph’s, are the lone returning players from the A-10 first team. Shulga ranks 10th in the A-10 in scoring (16.3), and Reynolds is 13th (16.1). The A-10 Player of the Year has ranked in the top 10 in scoring the last 10 seasons.
Davidson junior forward Reed Bailey (18.9) leads the A-10 in scoring. The other top contenders for the award are: Rhode Island senior guard Sebastian Thomas (17.6); Saint Louis junior guard Isaiah Swope (17.8); fifth-year VCU guard Joe Bamisile (17.0); Saint Joseph’s junior forward Rasheer Fleming (16.5 points and 8.5 rebounds); and Saint Louis junior forward Robbie Avila (17.2 points).
Worst injury luck: Loyola Chicago lost third-year guard Justin Moore, who played the last two seasons at Drexel, to a season-ending knee injury Dec. 15 during a game against San Francisco. He started the first nine games and averaged 7.7 points.
Another Loyola starter, junior guard Jayden Dawson, has missed the last five games and won’t play until at least Jan. 4 because of an ankle injury. He averaged 12.0 points in the first eight games.
In addition, Loyola junior guard Kymany Houinsou, who played the last two seasons at Washington State, has missed the last three games and will be sidelined until at least mid-January with a lower-leg injury. He started the first nine games and averaged 6.6 points.
TUESDAY’S GAME
La Salle at Dayton, 2 p.m., Fan Duel Sports Network, 95.7, 1290
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