ANALYSIS: Three takeaways from Dayton’s loss to VCU

The 73-68 loss on Friday at UD Arena falls into a familiar category. Two years ago, Dayton blew a four-point lead in the final 30 seconds in a 63-62 loss at UD Arena. This time, Dayton fell apart in the final four minutes, giving up a 12-0 run in a 2-minute, 17-second stretch. A 59-54 lead turned into a 64-59 deficit.

Dayton coach Anthony Grant, who fell to 6-12 against the program he coached from 2006-09, showed a different side in the postgame press conference. Typically calm and cool after even the most disappointing losses, Grant was not in the mood to take many questions. He cut short a reporter’s question about the performance of Zed Key, who had his most productive game in a month.

“We have to be better,” Grant said. “I’m not going anywhere else with that. We lost the game. We have to be better. Zed has to be better. Everybody on the team has to do their job better.”

Here are three takeaways from Dayton’s 24th game:

1. This was the second late collapse of the week: Dayton blew a 59-53 lead in the final four minutes on Tuesday against Davidson at UD Arena. An 8-0 run carried the Wildcats to a 61-59 lead with 51 seconds to play. Then a technical foul against Davidson turned the momentum around, and Dayton ended the game with a 10-2 run, winning 69-63.

This time, the collapse was worse and more complete. After Dayton took its largest lead, 59-54, on a free throw by Nate Santos with 4:54 to play, it didn’t score again until 52 seconds remained.

After a shot-clock violation by Dayton, Max Shulga started VCU’s run with a 3-pointer at the 3:17 mark. He then made a layup on the fast break after stealing the ball from Dayton freshman Dayton’s Amaël L’Etang, who had just entered the game for Zed Key.

After another turnover by Dayton, this one by Javon Bennett, VCU took the lead on two free throws by Zeb Jackson at the 2:37 mark. Dayton committed a turnover on its next possession as well. This time, it was a shot-clock violation.

After a 3-point play by Christian Fermin at the 1:39 mark gave VCU a 64-59 lead, Dayton committed its fifth straight turnover. Posh Alexander tried a behind-the-back pass under the basket and was called for a travel.

Then a layup by Zeb Jackson at the 1:06 mark completed the 12-0 run.

“The turnovers hurt us,” Bennett said. “They got easy baskets off of them, and that shifted the momentum.”

2. Turnovers and rebounding issues doomed Dayton: The Flyers committed 19 turnovers. VCU scored 30 points off those turnovers.

VCU grabbed 23 offensive rebounds. That’s how it took 18 more shots than Dayton. Dayton shot better from the field (37.3% to 36.2%), from 3-point range (36.8% to 21.4%) and even from the free-throw line (92% to 89.5%). It didn’t matter because VCU had 17 second-chance points to Dayton’s 10.

VCU took six shots on one possession after Dayton took the 59-54 lead but didn’t score. Its comeback started on its next possession.

“I think it’s pretty obvious the game came down to our inability to rebound the ball and our inability to take care of the ball tonight,” Grant said. “It’s disappointing. Give VCU credit. They did a great job of things that we knew coming into the game were going to be really key to give us the best chance to win. When you can’t rebound the ball, when you turn the ball over, when they get 18 more shots than you, that makes it really hard to win. We needed to be better, and we weren’t.”

3. It’s looking like the A-10 tournament or bust for Dayton: Dayton (16-8, 6-5) fell four games behind first-place George Mason (18-5, 9-1) in the loss column with seven games to play. The Flyers suffered their fourth loss at home to VCU in the last five years.

VCU (19-5, 9-2) cut George Mason’s lead to a half game. The Rams still control their own destiny in the Atlantic 10 Conference. They play at home against George Mason on Feb. 22.

Dayton is 0-2 against VCU and George Mason and lost both games at home. It’s the first time since the 2020-21 season it has lost two games at home in the same season.

Dayton’s slim hopes of earning a NCAA tournament at-large berth took another big hit. Even winning their last seven regular-season games might not be enough.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Dayton showed it can compete with VCU, which has been dominant in the A-10 outside of losses to St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis.

“That’s what hurts the most about it,” Santos said. “We had them. The things that we did we kind of handed it to them. It’s on us.”

STAR OF THE GAME

Max Shulga had 16 points on 6-of-14 shooting for VCU. He led the team with eight rebounds.

STAT OF THE GAME

Dayton shot 92% (23 of 25) at the free-throw line. VCU shot 89.5% (17 of 19).

LOOKING AHEAD

Dayton plays Fordham (11-12, 3-7) at 7 p.m. Wednesday at Rose Hill Gym in the Bronx, N.Y. Fordham beat Rhode Island 80-79 on Wednesday at Rose Hill and does not play again until next Wednesday. It has won three of its last four games.

WEDNESDAY’S GAME

Dayton at Fordham, 7 p.m., ESPN+, 95.7, 1290