While No. 1 seed Virginia Commonwealth is the overwhelming favorite with 45.2 percent chance of winning the championship Sunday at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, No. 3 seed Dayton (21-10) has better odds (21.8 percent) than No. 2 seed Davidson (16.8).
The website, TeamRankings.com, gives Dayton a 22.6 percent chance of winning the championship
Four other teams have a better than 1 percent chance, according to Pomeroy: No. 4 seed St. Bonaventure (4.4); No. 6 seed Saint Louis (3.2); and No. 5 seed George Mason (2.2).
Dayton has a 72.4 percent chance of reaching the semifinals and a 44.1 percent chance of playing in the championship game. Dayton will play Saint Louis, No. 11 seed Richmond or No. 14 seed Fordham in the quarterfinals at 8:30 p.m. Friday.
» TWENTY PHOTOS: Dayton vs. Duquesne
The top seed has not won the tournament since Saint Louis in 2013. No. 3 seed Davidson had a 26.2 percent chance last season and won the tournament. No. 4 seeds Rhode Island and Saint Joseph’s won in 2017 and 2016, respectively.
Dayton had a 1 percent chance of winning the tournament last season and lost its first game, in the second round to VCU. The prior two years, it was the favorite, losing in the semifinals in 2016 and in the quarterfinals in 2017. It has not reached the championship game since 2015.
Atlantic 10 Conference. All games at Brooklyn. #log5 pic.twitter.com/r7RoBRPqrx
— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 10, 2019
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