Breaking down Dayton’s performance in Charleston Classic

Runner-up finish includes two victories that may go down as Quad 2 wins

Credit: David Jablonski

The Dayton Flyers had a 3.3% chance of beating LSU, according to KenPom.com, when they faced a 60-45 deficit with nine minutes to play Thursday.

The comeback began when Kobe Elvis faked a shot outside the 3-point line in front of the UD bench and beat his defender, Tyrell Ward, to the baseline as DaRon Holmes II screened LSU 7-footer Will Baker. Another defender, Jordan Wright, awaited Elvis at the basket, but Elvis scored fairly easily on a layup with 8:55 to play.

That started a 19-2 run that turned around Dayton’s fortunes in the Charleston Classic and may have saved the season if it ends up on the right side of the bubble on Selection Sunday in March. The comeback is the 16th best of the college basketball season, based on minimum win probability, according to KenPom.com.

“These guys have unbelievable heart,” Dayton coach Anthony Grant said after the 70-67 first-round victory at TD Arena. “They love each other. They play for each other. They believe.”

During the run, Dayton made 5 of 7 field goals, including two 3-pointers by Javon Bennett, and 7 of 8 free throws. It scored on nine of 10 possessions in a six-minute stretch. In the same span, LSU made 1 of 9 shots and committed three turnovers.

“Everybody believed,” Dayton guard Koby Brea said. “The coaches believed in us. We went and took it.”

Dayton (3-2) beat St. John’s 88-81 the next day and then lost 69-55 to No. 6 Houston (6-0) in the championship game Sunday. Here’s a look back at the tournament:

Dayton’s MVP: Dayton forward Nate Santos made the all-tournament team. He averaged 17.0 points in the three games, the third-best number by any player in the event. He was named the Atlantic 10 Conference Co-Player of the Week on Monday after his performance in Charleston.

Santos made 17 of 25 field goals (68%) in Charleston. That number led all players.

Credit: David Jablonski

Biggest shots: Dayton made two comebacks against LSU. It took a 64-62 lead and had a shot to add to the lead, but Bennett missed a 3-pointer with 2:38 to play. LSU then scored five straight points and had an 80% chance of winning with a 67-62 lead entering the final minute.

Brea tied the game on a 3-pointer with 47 seconds remaining. Then Santos made the go-ahead 3-pointer with 4.1 seconds to play.

Best team stat: Dayton shot more free throws (51 of 66) than any team in the tournament and ranked second in percentage (77.3). Dayton ranks 31st in the country in free-throw percentage (78.6) through five games. The school record of 77.8 was set in the 2011-12 season.

Holmes has made 32 of 39 (82.1%). The other players who get to the line the most are: Santos (15 of 22, 68.2); Elvis (11 of 12, 91.7); Bennett (8 of 10, 80%); Enoch Cheeks (5 of 9, 55.6); and Brea (7 of 8, 87.5).

Worst team stats: Dayton ranked seventh out of eight teams in 3-point field-goal percentage (22 of 69, 31.9%) and also seventh in 3-point field-goal percentage defense (22 of 54, 40.7).

Best victories: The first NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings have not been released, but Dayton likely picked up two Quadrant 2 victories by beating LSU and St. John’s on a neutral court. If those teams climb into the top 50, they would become Quad 1 victories for Dayton.

Dayton was 1-2 in Quad 1 games last season and 1-6 in Quad 2. Assuming Houston ranks in the top 50 and Northwestern, which beat Dayton 71-66 on Nov. 10, ranks in the top 75, Dayton would be 0-2 in Quad 1 games.

Dayton’s game at SMU on Nov. 29 could be a Quad 2 game as long as SMU doesn’t below No. 1 135. A neutral site game against Cincinnati on Dec. 16 could also be a Quad 2 game.

Most efficient scorer: Dayton forward Isaac Jack made 7 of 8 shots in the Charleston Classic and has made 10 of 11 shots this season.

Best rotation development: Zimi Nwokeji, who’s in his fifth season at Dayton after redshirting as a freshman in 2019-20, did not play in the first two games of the season against Southern Illinois University Edwardsville and Northwestern. He saw a steady increase in minutes in each of the three games in Charleston: three minutes against LSU, five against St. John’s; and 12 against Houston.

Nwokeji scored five points in the first half against St. John’s on 2-of-2 shooting. He converted a 3-point play and made a short jumper. Against Houston, he scored seven points, making 2 of 2 field goals and 2 of 2 free throws. He made a 3-pointer for the first time since last December. He missed his last eight 3-point attempts last season.

“A big part of what these tournaments show you is can you develop some depth on your roster,” Grant said. “Losing Malachi (Smith) one game before we came here kind of changed some things that we thought we could have. Now it’s a matter of trying to build the depth and build some kind of ability for guys to understand the rotations and what’s being asked of them. I think we’re moving in the right direction.”

Grant said he hopes to get freshman guard Marvel Allen “involved in the next few weeks.” Allen suffered a lower-body injury in the week before the season began and is expected to miss four to six weeks, which means a return sometime in December.

FRIDAY’S GAME

Youngstown State at Dayton, 7 p.m., 1290, 95.7

Credit: David Jablonski

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