Dayton a top-30 team in preseason Ken Pomeroy ratings

Dayton is three spots ahead of Xavier, which plays the Flyers at UD Arena in an exhibition game at 5 p.m. Sunday. The game is sold out but will be televised on Bally Sports Ohio.

KenPom.com predicts Dayton will finish 23-6 against its 29 known non-conference opponents.

Dayton is favored in all but two of its non-conference games. It has a 40% chance of beating No. 16 North Carolina in the first round of the Maui Invitational on Nov. 25 and a 40% chance of beating No. 17 Cincinnati at the Heritage Bank Center in the Hoops Classic on Dec. 20.

In addition to North Carolina and Cincinnati, Dayton plays three other top-100 opponents in non-conference play, and those three games will take place at UD Arena: No. 22 Marquette (Dec. 14); No. 50 Northwestern (Nov. 9); and No. 94 UNLV (Dec. 17).

Dayton is the highest-ranked A-10 team in the preseason Pomeroy ratings for the third straight year. The other top-100 teams ranked are: No. 41 Virginia Commonwealth; No. 79 Loyola Chicago; No. 86 Saint Joseph’s; and No. 98 George Mason.

UC is the top Ohio team in the preseason ratings. Ohio State is No. 31. Wright State is No. 199. Miami is No. 211.

Dayton has finished higher than its preseason rating nine times in the last 14 seasons and four times in coach Anthony Grant’s first seven seasons. Over the last 14 seasons, the preseason and final rankings have differed by an average of 40.1 spots.

Here’s where Dayton has ranked in the preseason KenPom ratings over the years and where it has finished:

2010-11: 54 to 97.

2011-12: 81 to 69.

2012-13: 107 to 67.

2013-14: 70 to 42.

2014-15: 50 to 42.

2015-16: 64 to 59.

2016-17: 37 to 39.

2017-18: 103 to 172.

2018-19: 99 to 62.

2019-20: 55 to 4.

2020-21: 54 to 87.

2021-22: 84 to 55.

2022-23: 24 to 79.

2023-24: 69 to 30.