One of Dayton coach Anthony Grant’s favorite quotes is, “I can’t predict the future.” Sports writers can’t either, but here’s an attempt to do so. These are three predictions approaching the new year.
1. Dayton will finish 11-7 in A-10 play
I predicted Dayton would finish fifth in the conference before the season, and I’m going to stick with that. That’s also where it was picked to finish in the official preseason poll. An 11-7 record would likely land the Flyers near that spot. It’s not a confident guess. No one appears capable of running away with the regular-season championship this season.
St. Bonaventure (8-3), the overwhelming favorite in the preseason, lost by 37 points Friday to Virginia Tech, a team Dayton beat 62-57 five days earlier.
Davidson (8-2) is the highest-ranked A-10 team in the NCAA Evaluation Tool at No. 54 but hasn’t beaten anyone higher than No. 158 in those ratings.
Richmond (8-4) has won five games in a row but has lost to the three best teams on its schedule: Utah State; Maryland; and Mississippi State.
At least eight teams could challenge for the top four spots, and Dayton belongs in that group. A team that can beat Miami, Kansas and Belmont in a four-day stretch has the potential to win the A-10. However, it’s going to have to overcome its inexperience on the road, and that’s a big hurdle with nine A-10 road games in the months ahead. The Flyers have lost their only two true road games.
2. Two Flyers will make the A-10′s all-rookie team
This is a much easier prediction. Freshman point guard Malachi Smith has already won three rookie of the week awards, and freshman forward DaRon Holmes II has one weekly award. They’ve combined to win the last four honors.
Smith averages 10.1 points per game and ranks fifth in the A-10 in assists per game (4.9) and third in steals (2.0). Holmes II averages 10.4 points per game and ranks fifth in blocks (2.2) and leads the conference in field-goal percentage (65.4).
Smith and Holmes II have the two best offensive ratings (122.5 and 121.6, respectively), according to KenPom.com, on Dayton’s roster, and they have the best ratings among true freshmen in the conference. They are the only true freshmen in the top 50, in fact. The offensive rating measures a player’s personal offensive efficiency.
3. Dayton will figure out what to do with Toumani Camara
Camara had six turnovers in the victory against Virginia Tech and then eight Saturday in a 78-68 loss at Mississippi on Saturday. He has at least three turnovers in eight of Dayton’s 12 games.
Camara averaged 2.3 turnovers last season at Georgia. He’s averaging 3.1 this season. That’s one reason Camara has the worst offensive rating (91.2) on the team. That’s a number that has to improve if Dayton plans to continue to feature Camara as heavily on offense as it has.
Camara leads the team in field-goal attempts (101), even though he’s shooting 47.5 percent. By comparison, Smith and Holmes II have each taken 81 shots, second most on the team, but are shooting 51.9 percent and 65.4 percent.
Camara also has kept shooting 3-pointers — three attempts in each of the last two games — despite making 4 of 23 (17.4 percent) this season.
TUESDAY’S GAME
Southern at Dayton, 7 p.m., Spectrum News 1, 1290, 95.7
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