KenPom.com: Dayton the favorite in A-10 tournament

Flyers will start play in the quarterfinals Friday

Here’s a sentence UD fans would like to retire next Sunday: the Dayton Flyers have never won a conference tournament outside UD Arena.

With a 7-2 record against the teams in the top half of the standings, Dayton (22-9) has as good a chance as any team of changing that narrative at the 2022 Atlantic 10 Conference tournament — or a better chance than anyone, according to KenPom.com. The college basketball website’s math makes No. 2 seed Dayton the favorite with 26.7% odds of winning the championship at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.

“I feel we’re better than everyone in this conference,” said Dayton guard Koby Brea after an 82-76 victory against Davidson on Saturday at UD Arena, “and we’ve just got to keep going.”

The other top contenders are: regular-season champion and No. 1 seed Davidson (22.8%); No. 3 Virginia Commonwealth (16.5); No. 5 Saint Louis (12.3); No. 4 St. Bonaventure (9.5); No. 6 Richmond (7.0); and No. 9 George Mason (3.1).

Dayton became the favorite by beating Davidson. The Flyers have an 84.6% of beating No. 7 seed George Washington (12-17) or No. 10 Massachusetts (14-16) at 6 p.m. Friday in the quarterfinals and a 48% chance of winning in the semifinals Saturday when the opponent would be VCU (21-8), Richmond (19-12), No. 11 Rhode Island (14-15) or No. 14 Duquesne (6-23).

Dayton’s only conference tournament championships have been won at UD Arena. It beat Detroit, Loyola and Xavier on three straight days to win the Midwestern Collegiate Conference championship in 1990 and beat Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s and Temple on three straight days to win the A-10 tournament in 2003.

Dayton enters A-10 tournament this year as the conference’s highest-ranked team in the Pomeroy ratings (No. 45). Davidson (25-5) is No. 46. In the NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings, Davidson leads the way at No. 47. VCU (21-8) is No. 51. Dayton is No. 52.

A different A-10 team has won the tournament six time in a row: Virginia Commonwealth (2015); Saint Joseph’s (2016); Rhode Island (2017); Davidson (2018); Saint Louis (2019); and St. Bonaventure (2021). The 2020 tournament, where No. 1 seed Dayton was a big favorite, was cancelled because of the pandemic.

George Washington (2005 and 2007) and Richmond (2011) are the other current members of the A-10 who have won the tournament since Dayton’s last championship in 2003.


Here’s a look at the A-10 tournament schedule:

Wednesday

First round

Game 1: No. 12 La Salle vs. No. 13 Saint Joseph’s, 1 p.m., ESPN+

Game 2: No. 11 Rhode Island vs. No. 14 Duquesne, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+

Thursday

Second round

Game 3: No. 8 Fordham vs. No. 9 George Mason, Noon, USA Network

Game 4: No. 5 Saint Louis vs. Winner of Game 1, 2:30 p.m., USA Network

Game 5: No. 7 George Washington vs. No. 10 Massachusetts, 6 p.m., USA Network

Game 6: No. 6 Richmond vs. Winner of Game 2, 8:30 p.m., USA Network

Friday

Quarterfinals

Game 7: No. 1 Davidson vs. Winner of Game 3, Noon, USA Network

Game 8: No. 4 St. Bonaventure vs. Winner of Game 4, 2:30 p.m., USA Network

Game 9: No. 2 Dayton vs. Winner of Game 5, 6 p.m., USA Network

Game 10: No. 3 VCU vs. Winner of Game 6, 8:30 p.m., USA Network

Saturday

Semifinals

Game 11: Winner of Game 7 vs. Winner of Game 8, 1 p.m., CBS Sports Network

Game 12: Winner of Game 9 vs. Winner of Game 10, 3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

Sunday

Championship

Game 13: Winner of Game 11 vs. Winner of Game 12, 1 p.m., CBS

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