Recruiting experts impressed by Dayton’s success in 2021 class

Dayton also will have to consistently approach the success it had last season. No one will expect Dayton to win 29 games or go 18-0 in the Atlantic 10 Conference every season, but it would take something close to that to bring the program to Gonzaga’s level.

“If things are normal this year ... and Dayton is a 10 seed, that’s not going to do much,” said Brian Snow, a college basketball recruiting analyst for 247Sports.com. “Now if they’re again on the 2 or 3 seed line and people are talking about Jalen Crutcher winning national player of the year or being an All-American, then you can start to see the trend building. It took Gonzaga a long time. Gonzaga was going deep in the tournament and constantly winning. That’s what led them to be able to recruit at the upper tier. Dayton is going to have to do that.”

Holmes, a 6-foot-8 forward from Montverde Academy (Fla.) who ranks 36th in the Rivals.com class of 2021 rankings, committed to Dayton on Saturday. Washington, a 6-7 forward from Wheeler High School (Ga.) who’s ranked 90th by Rivals, announced his verbal commitment Monday.

Holmes and Washington joined 6-0 point guard Malachi Smith, of the St. Raymond School for Boys in Bronx, N.Y., in a 2021 class that ranks 22nd in the 2021 recruiting class rankings, according to 247Sports.com. Smith committed to Dayton in August.

This could be Dayton’s highest-ranked class this century. It last ranked in the top 50 in the 247Sports.com rankings in 2010 with a class that included Juwan Staten and Devin Oliver.

In previous years, Dayton ranked 108th (2020), 105th (2019), 81st (2018), 91st (2017), 73rd (2016), 81st (2015), 89th (2014), 66th (2013), 97th (2012), 201st (2011), 26th (2010), 154th (2009), 285th (2008), 47th (2007), 62nd (2006), 255th (2005), 40th (2004) and 188th (2003).

A number of factors have contributed to Dayton’s recruiting boom. The success the team had last year and the individual accolades that went to coach Anthony Grant and star forward Obi Toppin lead the list.

“The fact that Anthony Grant was able to win national coach of the year," said Jake Weingarten, the founder of Stockrisers.com, which covers recruiting across the country, “and Obi is going to be a lottery pick and then the tournament was cancelled when they had a great shot being a No. 1 seed, I give major props to the staff. They were not able to showcase what they could do when it mattered. That was a big deal. They were still able to bring in these guys.”

Weingarten was only surprised Holmes picked Dayton because much of the talk leading up to his announcement centered around him leaning toward Marquette.

“The emergence of Obi Toppin and what he was able to do,” Weingarten said, “it might have a recruit like Daron thinking to himself, ‘Look at the platform he was able to create for himself.’”

Holmes is the highest-ranked recruit to pick Dayton during the age of the online recruiting services. He’s the fourth top-40 recruit in the 247Sports.com rankings to commit to a current member of the Atlantic 10 Conference, following Terry Larrier (VCU, No. 34, 2014), Aaric Murray (La Salle, No. 37, 2009) and Ndene Gueye (St. Bonaventure, No. 38, 2017). None of those players proved to be game changers for those programs. All three finished their careers elsewhere.

It’s rare for anyone other than Gonzaga outside the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, Atlantic Coast, Southeastern, Big East and American to land top-50 talent, Snow said. He pointed to Zeke Marshall, the No. 40 prospect in the 2009 class, picking Akron as an example of an exception.

Sometimes when a team from a lower-ranked conference lands a highly-ranked recruit, it’s because they hired the recruit’s high school or AAU coach, Snow said. The commitment of Holmes happened organically, and he said that’s a testament to the staff.

“I think last year’s success is paying off,” Snow said. “Whenever you have the national player and coach of the year, that gives you more visibility. Dayton was able to translate that success. The staff did a good job of using that with DaRon Holmes. Dayton is a great program. It has great fan support and a good, solid tradition. A lot of things came together during a unique recruiting year. I do think it helps that a lot of schools maybe in the Big East or Big Ten or SEC were doing things totally different, and this year rewards the hard-working schools like Dayton.”

Dayton could still add to its 2021 class. It remains in the mix for Rafael Castro, a 6-9 forward from Dover, N..J., who ranks 136th in the Rivals.com rankings, and 6-7 forward Duncan Powell, a three-star recruit from DeSoto, Texas. The months and years ahead will tell the story of just how much Dayton recruiting is on an upward trend.

“I don’t want to say I know what Anthony Grant is going to do,” Snow said. “My guess is with him having been through this before, you have to stick with what works for you. In some respects, that’s been transfers. In some respect, that’s been guys he truly believes in that are under the radar. I think he knows you can’t get into too many high-major fights and come out ahead. I don’t see him changing who Dayton is.”